Interest Rate Changes

Interest rates on residential mortgages and U.S. Treasury securities can be influenced by monthly changes and the longer-term trend changes of economic indicators. There are many variables that can influence the rates on long-term debt instruments, but an understanding of key economic indicators can provide clues to the future direction of interest rates.
In most cases, economic reports are released on a monthly basis.

Employment Situation: Unemployment Rate

The government's employment report provides information on the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons by occupation, industry, duration of unemployment, and reason for unemployment. Unlike the payroll employment data, which is a coincident indicator of economic activity (it changes direction at the same time as the economy), the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.

A lower-than-expected unemployment rate or declining trend is considered inflationary, and can cause bond prices to fall and yields and interest rates to rise.

Consumer Credit

Consumer credit data tracks debt levels for auto financing and commercial banking credit and are considered a fairly good indicator of consumer spending. Consumer credit report is generally considered to have little impact on interest rates.

Housing Starts

Housing starts is one of the leading economic indicators. A higher-than-expected increase in housing starts triggers economic growth and is considered inflationary, causing bond prices to fall and yields and interest rates to rise. Likewise, decline or declining trend in housing activity slows the economy and can push it into a recession, causing yields and interest rates to fall.

Prime Rate

What it means: The initials stand for the Wall Street Journal, which surveys large banks and publishes the consensus prime rate. The Journal surveys the 30 largest banks, and when three-quarters of them (23) change, the Journal changes its rate, effective on the day the Journal publishes the new rate. It's the most widely quoted measure of the prime rate, which is the rate at which banks will lend money to their most-favored customers. The prime rate will move up or down in lock step with changes by the Federal Reserve Board.

How it's used: The prime rate is an important index used by banks to set rates on many consumer loan products, such as credit cards or auto loans. If you see that the prime rate has gone up, your variable credit card rate will soon follow.

Federal Discount Rate

What it means: The interest rate at which an eligible financial institution may borrow funds directly from a Federal Reserve bank. Banks whose reserves dip below the reserve requirement set by the Federal Reserve's board of governors use that money to correct their shortage. The board of directors of each reserve bank sets the discount rate every 14 days. It's considered the last resort for banks, which usually borrow from each other.

How it's used: The Fed uses the discount rate to control the supply of available funds, which in turn influences inflation and overall interest rates. The more money available, the more likely inflation will occur. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow from the Fed. That lowers the supply of available money, which increases the short-term interest rates. Lowering the rate has the opposite effect, bringing short-term interest rates down.

Fed Funds Rate

What it means: The interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other, usually on an overnight basis. The law requires banks to keep a certain percentage of their customer's money on reserve, where the banks earn no interest on it. Consequently, banks try to stay as close to the reserve limit as possible without going under it, lending money back and forth to maintain the proper level.

How it's used: Like the federal discount rate, the federal funds rate is used to control the supply of available funds and hence, inflation and other interest rates. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow. That lowers the supply of available money, which increases the short-term interest rates and helps keep inflation in check. Lowering the rate has the opposite effect, bringing short-term interest rates down.

11th District Cost of Funds

What it means: A monthly cost-of-funds index (COFI) reflecting the weighted-average interest rate paid by 11th Federal Home Loan Bank District savings institutions for savings and checking accounts. The 11th district covers Arizona, California and Nevada. The index is published on the last day of the month and reflects the cost of funds for the prior month.

How it's used: It’s an index that is used to set the cost of variable-rate loans, such as an adjustable-rate mortgage. Lenders use such an index, which varies, to adjust interest rates as economic conditions change. They then add a certain number of percentage points called a margin, which doesn’t vary, to the index to establish the interest rate you must pay. When this index goes up, interest rates on any loans tied to it also go up. COFI usually lags market interest rates in both up and down markets. That means loans tied to this index rise and fall more slowly than rates in general.